Merkel's pro-refugee policy blamed for state election defeat

A humiliating state election defeat for Angela Merkel in her own backyard and another drubbing that looms in two weeks in Berlin are casting an ominous shadow over the Chancellor's hopes of winning - or even running - for a fourth term in 2017.

Analysts expect Ms Merkel to weather the storm brewing over the debacle in the rural state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, where partial results showed her Christian Democrats (CDU) fell to a shock third place behind the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD) and the anti-immigrant Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.

But the chancellor, whose towering approval ratings had long carried her party to victories at the polls over the last 11 years, has suddenly turned into a liability amid a frightening fall in support.

Conservatives, who feel they have a lock on power after ruling the country for 47 of the last 65 years, are blaming Ms Merkel's pro-refugee stance for their mounting losses.

The AfD latched onto the issue with a vengeance following the arrival of one million refugees in the last year and turned it into a battering ram against Ms Merkel, who made a decision a year ago to open the gates for people fleeing war and turmoil.

"The only issue voters care about right now is (Merkel's) irresponsible migrant policies," said Leif-Erik Holm, the leader of the AfD in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. "It's not what people want. I think this is the beginning of the end of Merkel."

"People will see this as the start of the 'Kanzlerdaemmerung' (twilight of the chancellor)," said Gero Neugebauer, political scientist at Berlin's Free University, of the defeat in her home district.

"If a lot of CDU members start seeing this defeat as Merkel's fault, and members of parliament start seeing her as a danger for the party and their own jobs in [the] next year, the whole situation could escalate out of control. If the AfD beats the CDU again in two weeks in Berlin, things could get ugly fast," added Mr Neugebauer

Discontent over Ms Merkel's welcoming of refugees has spread even to the rural northeastern corner of the country in a state that has the fewest number of foreigners in Germany.

There are only 20,000 refugees there and just 65,004 of the state's 1.6 million residents are foreigners.

A recent poll showed her approval rating fell from 67% to a five-year low of 45%. Her conservatives would win just 33%, down from 41% a year ago, according to the Infratest Dimap poll by ARD TV.

That would cost 30 of the 310 MPs their jobs next year.

Thomas Jaeger, political scientist at Cologne University, said that Ms Merkel was down but far from out.

"It's definitely a slap in the face for her and her policies," said Mr Jaeger. "She'll long be blamed for letting a party to the right of the conservatives get an established foothold. But there's no one in the party who'll try to topple her."

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