Kent Moors, the executive chairman of Energy Capital Research Group, told CNBC's "Closing Bell" on Tuesday from Algeria that there is a consensus developing that there may be "an extraordinary session in 4-6 weeks," well before OPEC's next meeting in Vienna on Nov. 30.
"Behind the scenes there's a considerable amount of negotiation," Moor said. "Everybody has been shooting themselves in the foot, for some time here in OPEC. There is a consistent simple budgetary crisis that's developed."
Moor said that several non-OPEC elements are coming into play, such as Russia's "unsustainable" 11 million barrels per day rate.
"We have a situation where nobody has a vested interest in keeping any oil in the ground," Moors said. "Right now, your market share demands that you lift it up and you sell it, even though the overall revenue flow is declining and that simply is not sustainable."
Short term, Moore said, the closed door meetings taking place in Algeria this week should start presenting strategic leaks. However, he cautions against listening to everything that comes out of Venezuela, Libya and even Algeria. He said those countries are hurting from a budgetary standpoint and will "grasp at any straw to argue that there is a cut coming."
"Here's the bottom line: I'm seeing low $50 a barrel by the time we reach the end of the year," he said. "We're looking at $63 to 65 dollars a barrel, I think, by the end of the first quarter of 2017. That requires that the balance be clearly in focus and that balance requires that production remain tempered and those are the great unknowns."
CNBC
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